Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Manufacturing Employment Growth
Across Alabama Counties
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
Alabama:
2010-2022 = 0.87%
2022 = 3.39%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of manufacturing employment growth across all of Alabama's 67 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Alabama Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the manufacturing employment growth of Alabama's 67 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Manufacturing
Employment Growth
Alabama:
2010-2022 = 0.87%
2022 = 3.39%
This figure displays the 67 counties of Alabama as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the manufacturing employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term manufacturing employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 0.87%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.87% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (0.87%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 28 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 36 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 26 counties whose most recent (2022) manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (3.39%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 38 counties whose manufacturing employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 67 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 0.87% over 2010-2022 and 3.39% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (0.87%) and near-term (3.39%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.87%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Alabama average (3.39%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (0.87%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (3.39%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual manufacturing employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (0.87%) and near-term (3.39%).
   
 
Summary of Alabama's 67 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(3.39%)
Above
(3.39%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.87%)
15
13
28
Below
(0.87%)
23
13
36
 
38
26
64
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Alabama:
2010-2022 = 0.87%
2022 = 3.39%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Alabama counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Alabama's average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.87%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.39%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Alabama's 67 counties, 13 (19%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Alabama:
2010-2022 = 0.87%
2022 = 3.39%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 15 Alabama counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.87%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 3.39%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 15 (22%) of Alabama's 67 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Alabama:
2010-2022 = 0.87%
2022 = 3.39%
This figure shows the distribution of the 13 Alabama counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual manufacturing employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.87%), while they outpaced Alabama's average near-term (2022 = 3.39%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Alabama's 67 counties, 19% (13) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Alabama:
2010-2022 = 0.87%
2022 = 3.39%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 23 Alabama counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual manufacturing employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.87%) as well as near-term (2022 = 3.39%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual manufacturing employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
34% of Alabama's counties, 23 of 67, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Alabama
Manufacturing Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
17
2.16
 
21
3.81
1,633
 
1
7.35
 
6
9.36
2,337
 
6
3.64
 
9
7.07
5,955
 
10
3.08
 
10
6.72
6,876
 
14
2.55
 
24
3.54
4,974
 
23
1.53
 
23
3.63
514
 
24
1.42
 
25
3.53
7,097
 
4
4.22
 
2
14.69
5,371
 
27
1.02
 
13
5.50
27,083
 
12
2.78
 
5
12.23
4,544
 
22
1.56
 
17
4.34
13,926
 
2
5.18
 
7
7.33
3,805
 
15
2.53
 
14
5.45
2,555
Slipping Counties
 
3
4.72
 
44
0.56
712
 
13
2.66
 
43
0.62
1,298
 
11
2.82
 
61
-6.16
1,798
 
9
3.29
 
42
0.68
2,374
 
21
1.65
 
56
-3.04
543
 
26
1.26
 
62
-6.84
1,021
 
5
3.75
 
39
0.99
1,229
 
25
1.35
 
35
1.59
12,769
 
20
1.68
 
38
1.27
19,098
 
28
0.94
 
45
0.50
801
 
19
1.76
 
54
-1.47
2,819
 
18
1.87
 
32
1.74
10,189
 
16
2.20
 
30
1.98
16,784
 
7
3.64
 
53
-1.18
838
 
8
3.42
 
41
0.68
3,971
Gaining Counties
 
38
0.25
 
11
6.44
4,493
 
50
-0.82
 
16
4.51
1,459
 
35
0.60
 
26
3.51
7,021
 
31
0.75
 
18
4.23
1,973
 
58
-1.73
 
4
12.87
377
 
33
0.63
 
20
3.82
3,261
 
43
-0.34
 
1
18.01
616
 
56
-1.57
 
22
3.74
722
 
41
-0.27
 
15
4.63
24,935
 
53
-1.21
 
19
3.86
2,876
 
57
-1.64
 
3
13.92
900
 
55
-1.53
 
12
6.01
1,322
 
34
0.61
 
8
7.24
1,215
Lagging Counties
 
63
-3.04
 
51
-0.91
2,175
 
42
-0.33
 
40
0.91
999
 
37
0.28
 
59
-5.30
2,180
 
49
-0.81
 
64
-10.71
800
 
59
-1.83
 
47
0.15
4,120
 
52
-1.16
 
28
2.13
2,785
 
44
-0.39
 
49
-0.50
6,522
 
46
-0.45
 
36
1.51
2,426
 
47
-0.58
 
34
1.65
1,906
 
45
-0.42
 
37
1.45
4,631
 
30
0.77
 
63
-7.86
504
 
62
-3.02
 
58
-4.10
444
 
48
-0.64
 
27
2.20
4,314
 
32
0.68
 
50
-0.51
5,292
 
64
-6.73
 
31
1.84
277
 
61
-2.94
 
46
0.18
1,123
 
36
0.58
 
29
2.02
13,999
 
40
-0.22
 
60
-5.58
406
 
39
0.15
 
55
-1.83
2,622
 
29
0.86
 
33
1.73
5,935
 
60
-1.90
 
52
-1.10
361
 
51
-1.08
 
48
-0.46
2,371
 
54
-1.45
 
57
-3.39
969
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
1,868
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.87
 
3.39
284,309
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.64
 
3.63
13,523,700
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_510500_LSGL
 
   
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